The Giuliani Factor

It looks like Rudy is in.

"There's a real good chance," Giuliani told The Associated Press on Saturday, after a 30-minute speech and question-and-answer session with party leaders in South Carolina.

So the question is how will he fare in the Republican primary?  The progenitor is McCain since Republicans seem to put the oldest one next in line for the throne (e.g., Reagan, Dole).  Thus, from that standpoint / logic, McCain is the guy.  On the other hand, the last few Presidents have been governors (e.g., Reagan, Clinton, Bush).  So maybe Romney is the default Republican candidate.  But conservatives realize that if they do not put up a candidate that will be able to win over the independents in a general election, then it will be a Democratic victory.  And if Congress stays on the left side of the aisle, then it will be a situation no conservative will like.  Not exactly the best situation to be in and certainly not the best situation for McCain or Romney -- they will not win the nomination.

McCain, I think, burned too many bridges last go around.  He may be the old guy -- but he isn't a Bob Dole or Ronald Reagan.  As for Mitt, the media will always be focusing (of course wrongly) on Romney's religious views.  I think that this will be deplorable, but inevitable, considering the media's slant to the left.  And with that continous bombardment, the public will be turned off by Romney.  Considering how Bush and stem-cell research went down, I wonder how the public would view Romney and those type of issues?

So lets look at Rudy.  Can he win the hearts and minds?  I think he can.

"The fact is I appeal to conservative Christians the way I appeal to everyone else," Giuliani said at a news conference. "I don't think you have separate appeals to people."

Rudy isn't stupid.  He isn't going to get into the game unless he thinks he has a very good chance of winning the nomination.  He has a nationwide appeal that I think that trumps all other issues.  I think the base is not an entity that can be put into this mold of inflexability.

Here is Powerline's current take.

Many believe that Giuliani will fade as his positions on social issues become better known, and that's certainly possible. Indeed, a year ago I would have said it's probable and two years ago, almost certain. One might guess that the issues as to which conservatives have problems with Giuliani are more fundamental, and thus more problematic, than the gripes that plague McCain. But from what I hear, it seems to be the other way around.

Granted this is from his exploratory site, but I think it is a reflection of his general appeal.

Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.

This sums it up.

While Giuliani has consistently led in polls of potential GOP primary voters, there is an intense debate among political observers as to whether the former Mayor of New York can actually win the nomination. Those who say Giuliani cannot win point to his views on key social issues and his own lifestyle which includes multiple marriages and divorces. Others say that Giuliani’s leadership quotient and charisma will overcome those points for Republicans fearful of seeing a Democrat in the White House.

Logic would say that Rudy will never have a chance in a Republican primary.  But I say he has a chance.  I'll even dare say -- real good chance.