Here's Hoping for Some Political Beamerball...

Michael Barone has an interesting post regarding the surge in Republican party identification:

Republicans were running just under parity from January 2004 to January 2006. Democrats jumped to a 4-point lead in July 2006 and maintained it or ramped it up as high as 7 points from July 2006 to November 2007. Then we're back to near-parity in December 2007.

Yes, it's just one month. It may not be sustained. Indeed, the dynamics of the presidential campaign could change these numbers a lot. But party identification ordinarily doesn't change very much, so small changes are different. Rasmussen's numbers in retrospect forecast the Republican defeat in November 2006.

He observes, "It is startling to note that the Democrats have lost two thirds of the partisan advantage since taking control of Congress." Could this be some kind of turnaround?

Who knows how this is going to play out?  We could be back to where we were in terms of party identification and the 50/50 split we saw in the 2000 election. 

It is kind of like the prediction of a big football game right now.  There is analysis of offense, defense, special teams, and intangibles.

Right now, it is the intangibles that are creating such a mess with the prediction of what is going to happen.  Who cares how Congress has disappointed the masses?  You have this wave of emotion surrounding Obama.  And this election is going to be won by how the independents vote.

As of yet, I just don't see that emotion on the Republican side. 

Intangible advantage:  Democrats.  But I am looking for some right of center Beamerball... it can be a game changer!