Conspiracy Theories

There is something about conspiracy theories and the psychology behind them that is interesting.

According to some psychologists, a person who believes in one conspiracy theory tends to believe in others; a person who does not believe in one conspiracy theory tends not to believe another.

Now this is interesting, because I for one find myself in the latter.  So the question is why?

I guess it is simple really.  Because the keyword in "conspiracy theory" is not conspiracy.  It is theory.

Here is a good post from The Grassy Knoll Online asking the simple question:  Are conspiracy theorists kooks?

Seemingly rational people across the internet are quick to label those who may believe that Lee Harvey was a lone gunman, or that an alien craft crashed in 1947, or that Dick Cheney is a cyborg, as paranoid-delusional, tinfoil-hat-wearing lunatics. But are they justified in doing so?

The post touches on the definition of conspiracy.  Again, I tend to think that the emphasis should be on theory.

Key definitions of theory:

• a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact.
• contemplation or speculation.
• guess or conjecture.

In my mind, believing or not believing in conspiracy theories has nothing to do with conspiracies at all.  Human history is full of conspiracies.  Conspiracies are facts of life.  They do happen.  But are conspiracies behind everything?  The answer is simply... no.

Believing in something, whether it is a conspiracy or anything else, has to be grounded in facts.  When conspiracy theorists throw out speculation about how a building falls or whether a plane hit the Pentagon, further evaluation leads most to see that the explanations are conjecture.  The presence of defending facts is still debatable.  Just theories.  Possible explanations.  Coincidental evidence at best.

That said...

Are there theories out there that are just outlandishly wrong?  Definitely. 
Are there theories out there that are indeed true?  Sure -- possibly. 
Does this mean we jump off the deep end with conspiracy theories explaining everything?  No. 
Does this mean that people should stop questioning?  Of course not.

In the end, we should heed the advice from John whether it is about a scientific theory or a conspiracy theory:

If it sounds good, check it. If it sounds good and confirms your beliefs - check it twice, and then ask your enemies to check it.

That's the only way to do good science.

So do I have a problem with conspiracy theorists and are they all kooks?  The answer is no*.

*as long as they can defend their theories with reasoned logical, skeptical, and factually based arguments.  Good luck theorists...